Rural Financial Counsellors Mariné Morton and Linda McLean from the Rural Financial Counselling Service NSW (RFCS NSW) attended the 2025 ABARES Outlook Conference. A summary of key highlights relevant to RFCS NSW clients and stakeholders is provided below.
Over 300 people attended the ABARES conference with representation from government, service providers and industry bodies and stakeholders. It offered an opportunity to explore the predicted outlook for agriculture, fisheries, and forestry.
Day 1 began with a look at the future of agriculture.
While overall growth is expected to slow compared to recent years, the outlook remains positive, with production expected to stay above average. For example the 2024-25 national winter crop is forecast to be the third-largest on record, at 59.8 million tonnes with average broadacre farm business profits forecast to rise to $110k by 2025-26.Key drivers include strong EU demand for canola exports, and non-GM canola price increases over the five-year average.
Feed prices, which were elevated last year, are expected to return to normal this year. Trends in plant-based protein consumption are influenced by price, with a noticeable shift away from lamb and mutton. However, it’s difficult to determine if this is due to displacement by traditional products. The Australian sheep flock continues to decline, with a shift away from Merinos towards sheep meat breeds, marking a trend away from specialized sheep farmers.
US tariffs are expected to increase commodity prices fuelling inflation. Diversifying markets will help mitigate the impact of tariffs. For example, the production of legumes, especially chickpeas, increased significantly last year, as India removed tariffs for a period.
Day 2 focused on pathways to attract capital.
Private lending is becoming a more viable option for investment in agriculture. Currently, only 9% of business lending in Australia comes from private credit, compared to 91% in the US and 65% in Europe. While this option is more expensive, it is expected to become more affordable as demand increases.
A tight labour market and difficulty attracting skilled workers in rural areas requires the sector to develop sustainable workforce strategies. These need to cover the education system as only 40 domestic students started an agriculture PhD in 2022, housing, and the use of Pacific Australia Labour Mobility (PALM) scheme and working holiday makers.
Securing affordable inputs like fuel, fertiliser, and chemicals are critical for attracting investment in the sector and maintaining or increasing food security. The ecosystem for Australian agricultural food security involves many stakeholders creating a deeply connected network where advancements in one area can have cascading effects on others, impacting national resilience, military capabilities, and economic prosperity (ASPI, National Food Security Preparedness Green Paper, March 2025). Food security is a cornerstone of national security, and without reliable, resilient food systems, Australia’s economy and sovereignty would be at compromised.
Many peak agricultural groups and policy think tanks are working on steps to prepare for these future challenges.
